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Apple is one of the most watched stocks. Some of the factors that might affect the stock’s near-term performance might be reviewed.

Over the past month, shares of this maker of iPhones, iPad and other products have returned -0.2%, compared to the S&P 500’s -1.4% change. The industry that Apple falls in has gained 0.7%. What could be the stock’s future direction?

There are always certain fundamental factors that drive the buy-and-hold decision, even if media reports about a significant change in a company’s business prospects cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change.

The earnings estimate has been revised.

We value the change in the projection of a company’s future earnings more than anything else. The fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.

Sell-side analysts revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends is what we look at. The fair value for a company’s stock goes up if earnings estimates go up. A higher fair value leads to investors buying the stock and moving the price higher. The correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and stock price movements is shown in empirical research.

For the current quarter, Apple is expected to post earnings of $1.43 per share, which is a change of 2% from the year-ago quarter. Over the last 30 days, the consensus estimate has changed slightly.

The current fiscal year’s earnings estimate is $6.16 points to a change of +9.8% from the prior year. This estimate has not changed over the last 30 days.

The consensus earnings estimate for the next fiscal year indicates a change of 8.5% from what Apple is expected to report a year ago. The estimate has not changed over the past month.

The power of earnings estimate revisions and a strong track record make our proprietary stock rating tool, theZacks Rank, a more conclusive picture of a stock’s price direction in the near term. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has made Apple a Buy.

The chart shows the evolution of the company’s forward 12-month consensus estimate.

12 months of earnings.

There is a 12-month consensus estimate for AAPL.

The revenue growth forecast.

If a business isn’t able to grow its revenues, nothing will happen as an indicator of a company’s financial health. It’s nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings without increasing its revenues. Knowing a company’s potential revenue growth is important.

The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +5.4% in the case of Apple. The current and next fiscal years estimates show changes of 8.7% and 6.7%, respectively.

Surprise history and last reported results.

In the last reported quarter, Apple reported revenues of $1232.95 billion, a year-over-year change of 11.2%. The same period’s earnings per share was $2.10 compared with $1.68 a year ago.

The reported revenues were higher than the consensus estimate of $118.13 billion. The estimate was +11.1%.

Over the last four quarters, Apple beat estimates three times. The company topped revenue estimates three times.

There is a valuation.

Investment decisions can’t be efficient without considering a stock’s valuation. Predicting a stock’s future price performance is dependent on whether the current price reflects the underlying business and the company’s growth prospects.

While comparing the current values of a company’s valuation multiples, such as P/E, price-to-sales and price-to-cash flow, with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is overvalued.

The value style score organizes stocks into five groups based on traditional and unconventional valuation metrics, making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is worth buying.

Apple is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

Conclusion.

The market buzz about Apple might be worth paying attention to, if the facts discussed here and other information are any indication. It is possible that it may beat the broader market in the near term.

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